Global Intelligence Analysis

Navigating PyeongChang, South Korea during Olympics XXIII

PyeongChang 2018 Olympics: A Land Without Google Maps

While traveling, it is always important to know how to get around, especially when abroad. Knowing where you are can save you the hassle of getting on a bus going the wrong direction or knowing whether a cab ride to the other end of town will take 15 minutes or 50 minutes. Travelers in South Korea face difficulties as two of the most popular navigation apps, Google Maps and Apple Maps, do not provide adequate coverage due to strict national security laws.
Signs of drought in Cape Town, South Africa

Ongoing Drought Threatening Water Supply in Cape Town, South Africa

Concerns are growing over a worsening drought that is leading to severe water shortages in Cape Town, South Africa. Local officials warned in January 2018 that Cape Town could reach "Day Zero," when the city's water resources are depleted, as early as April 21, 2018; however, various measures are expected to be implemented to mitigate the shortage before this date. The local government began instituting basic water rationing Jan. 8 and has a six-step, phased approach for such restrictions that will likely be implemented as water scarcity increases.
US State Department Updates Travel Advisory for Mexico

State Department Puts 5 Mexican States on ‘Do Not Travel’ List

On Jan. 10, the United States Department of State unveiled a new travel advisory system in which countries, as well as some individual provinces, are assigned a safety rating on a scale from one to four. The lowest level on the scale, Level 1, is reserved for areas in which the Department of State advises travelers to exercise normal precautions, while a Level 4 designation means that US citizens should not travel to the area. The State Department’s purpose of releasing travel advisories is twofold, in that they set guidelines regarding where diplomatic personnel may travel, and inform US citizens of where there are significant threats to security.
Human Trafficking in Libya

Human Trafficking in Libya: A Tool within a Volatile Political Environment

Libya has made headlines recently for the horrific conditions endured by migrants and refugees detained in the country, but what the media has drawn less attention to is the prevailing security conditions and political dynamics in Libya that facilitate human trafficking. Much like oil facilities in Libya, human trafficking hubs represent strategic points of power due to the lucrative nature of human smuggling. On a broader level, controlling the flow of migrants also affords legitimacy in a politically competitive environment.
View overlooking Sana'a, Yemen

Assassination of Former President Saleh Makes Ending the War More Difficult

The assassination of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh outside of Sana'a on Dec. 4 not only led to an increased spasm of violence between Saleh's supporters and the Shi'a Al-Houthi rebel, but has ultimately made ending a seemingly intractable civil war even more difficult. After more than two years of a conflict that has killed roughly 10,000 people, wounded nearly 50,000 others, displaced more than three million, and destroyed much of the county's infrastructure, it has become increasingly apparent that a military solution to ending the war cannot be attained by either side. A mediated settlement was seen as the only viable solution, and with the elimination of Saleh, the opposing sides will likely dig in their heels for a protracted conflict that will further decimate the poorest country in the Arab World.
Concerns Rise Over Call for US Military Personnel Dependents to Depart South Korea

Concerns Rise Over Call for US Military Personnel Dependents to Depart South Korea

When examining the nuclear tensions in the Korean Peninsula, it is essential to separate rhetoric from reality. It is easy for the US to threaten North Korea with a preemptive strike against Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal. It is also very easy for Kim Jong-Un to speak of a devastating war against the United States and its allies. However, it is much more difficult for either North Korea or the US to carry out these threats without inviting retaliation from the other side. Assuming the essential strategic rationality of both the US and North Korea, neither country is likely to purposefully initiate military action.
World Malaria Report 2017 Infographic

Global Malaria Report 2017

The World Health Organization (WHO) Global Technical Strategies for Malaria set certain goals for malaria reduction and elimination. Unfortunately, the world is not currently on track to meet milestones set for 2020. While many improvements were made in the last decade, funding shortages to support spraying and insecticide-treated bednets has fallen behind in recent years. The World Malaria Report provides a comprehensive overview of progress in the fight against malaria, including an up-to-date assessment of malaria-related policies in endemic countries.
Zimbabwe Military Intervention

Special Report: Zimbabwe - Widespread Civil Unrest Unlikely in the Near Term

The Nov. 14-15 military takeover of Zimbabwe, set in motion by President Robert Mugabe's Nov. 6 decision to sack Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa and purge his supporters from the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), is unlikely to result in widespread violence in the near term. Potential opponents of the military remain disoriented by the rapidity of its seizure of power. Furthermore, a longstanding prioritization of government spending on the military will likely contribute to command-and-control cohesion, and inhibit the emergence of effective renegade units. Authorities are likely to keep airports and international borders open, in part to show "normalcy," but also to prevent the intensification of widespread essential goods shortages. Nonetheless, in the longer term, political uncertainty could prompt panic buying and withdrawals of savings, and consequent food and cash shortages could lead to protests and increased criminal activity.
France Counterterrorism Measures Enshrined in New Law

Special Report: France - New Law Enshrines Robust Counterterrorism Measures

The expiration of France's State of Emergency, and its replacement with a new anti-terrorism law, indicates that French authorities view the threat of Islamist-inspired attacks as persistent and unchanged; in short, the state of heightened security will continue nationwide indefinitely. The anti-terrorism law, which came into effect Nov. 1, permanently grants security personnel the power to, with some exceptions unique to the State of Emergency, detain and question suspected terrorists, and increase surveillance at public events, transport hubs, and borders. A visibly heightened police and military presence - as well as related security alerts - at heavily trafficked locations throughout the country will likely prompt disruptions to transport and business operations.

Spain: Takeover of Catalonian Administration Likely to Prompt Continued Protests

Continued protest activity relating to tensions around the issue of Catalan independence is likely in the coming weeks after the Spanish federal government revoked Catalonian autonomy and dismissed the regional government. Although Madrid will now likely seek to de-escalate the crisis, campaigning ahead of fresh regional elections scheduled for Dec. 21 could encourage further demonstrations by both pro-Spain and pro-independence activists. However, it remains highly unlikely that the situation will deteriorate to the point where it poses a direct threat to foreign companies or travelers in Catalonia.
Travel Security for US-bound Flights

New Security Measures for US-Bound Flights Unlikely to Cause Significant Disruptions

On Thursday, October 26, the deadline for airlines to impose new security measures mandated by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for international flights to the United States went into effect. While the deadline received significant media attention, the new measures have not caused significant disruptions for travelers.

A Cidade Maravilhosa: Will the Olympic Games live up to Rio de Janeiro's nickname?

Rio de Janeiro’s nickname, the Marvelous City, is coming under fire as the Rio 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games approach. On June 17, Rio de Janeiro State Interim Governor Francisco Dornelles did the improbable: declared an economic state of emergency with just 49 days until opening ceremonies. Fearing a “total collapse” of the public security, transportation, health, and education infrastructure, Dornelles essentially filed for a state’s version of bankruptcy. To avoid possible strikes and protests that could disrupt the Games, the federal government was forced to step in and provide BRL 2.9 billion (USD 868 million) to the state.

GHANA Significant Unrest Unlikely in Presidential Election Shaped by Economic and Corruption Concerns

Regardless of the electoral outcome, Ghana is likely to remain an example of stability in Africa, with tensions ahead of the election, symptomatic of legitimate political competition.

El Niño Impact - Drought likely to Trigger Civil Unrest in Colombia

The effects of El Niño season bring hardships for citizens and potential disruptions to travelers due to increasing protests throughout the country.

Violent Protests Result in Water Crisis in India

Travelers be advised, the India water crisis may be short-lived but the Jat protests will likely persist

iJET Launches Pan-African Leadership Study (PALS) Project

The African National Congress' (ANC) nearly 22-year hold on power is under threat from allegations of corruption, and from increasingly strong opposition parties on both ends of the political spectrum. iJET’s Africa team has been investigating the fascinating third-term phenomenon within the wider context of a Pan-African Leadership Study.

African National Congress Attempts to Reverse Declining Support Likely to Polarize Political Tensions

Politics in South Africa is likely to remain dominated by the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in the near future; however, growing frustration over the lack of economic opportunities and widespread corruption is expected to encourage increased support for opposition groups. Efforts to attract supporters, both between and within political parties, are likely to exacerbate the use of populist and xenophobic rhetoric, thereby polarizing political competition in South Africa.